Predicting Happiness Is Like Predicting the Weather

You may have noticed that weather predictions are better when they are predicting what the weather will be tomorrow than what the weather will be ten days from now, much less what it will be six months from now. We are like that in predicting what will make us happy.

We can better predict what will bring us joy today than what will bring joy six months from now. Yet, we behave as though we are accurate predictors of future happiness. “I sure will be happy when this project is over.” “If I won that lottery, I’d be happy for the rest of my life.” “If only he would quit drinking, we would be able to be happy.”

You can pretty much tell how you will feel today if you buy that expensive purse or new golf club. But you will have a much more difficult time predicting the effect of those purchases six months from now. In fact you are likely to be wrong in your prediction. Studies have shown that we expect purchases to bring more happiness than they actually do. For that matter, we have exaggerated expectations for many things to bring us happiness. One problem is that we are attempting to project too far into the future.

“If I get that promotion my life will be happier.” “I’ll be happy if I can get Bob to marry me.” “Children will make us happier.” In each example, the individual is making a prediction that goes far into the future. Each person’s life could be happier as a result of that promotion, marriage or children, but there are many other variables that will contribute to whether their prediction is accurate. Not only can promotions create tension with coworkers, marriage create tension when expectations are unmet, and children can simply be a pain (remember what sleep deprivation feels like?), but other factors such as health concerns, unexpected financial emergencies, or a myriad of life events can impact one’s joy.

Since I was a young child, I have been encouraged to make decisions based on what will lead to greater happiness in the future. I taught my children the same lessons. But making good grades, following the rules, and choosing your friends wisely do not guarantee future happiness. In fact, concern about the future can actually undermine your ability to enjoy today by leaving you anxious in your inability to control the future.

As criminals in jail, teenage mothers, and high school dropouts will tell you, bad decisions can lead to unhappiness, but avoiding bad decisions does not bring happiness. Instead of focusing on the distant future for your happiness, take time each day to find a source of happiness that day can bring.

Perhaps you will find happiness in chatting with a friend, appreciating nature, or performing an simple act of kindness. As you focus on each day’s sources of happiness, you will find that you are better at detaching from the worries of an unpredictable tomorrow.