Predicting Happiness Is Like Predicting the Weather

You may have noticed that weather predictions are better when they are predicting what the weather will be tomorrow than what the weather will be ten days from now, much less what it will be six months from now. We are like that in predicting what will make us happy.

We can better predict what will bring us joy today than what will bring joy six months from now. Yet, we behave as though we are accurate predictors of future happiness. “I sure will be happy when this project is over.” “If I won that lottery, I’d be happy for the rest of my life.” “If only he would quit drinking, we would be able to be happy.”

You can pretty much tell how you will feel today if you buy that expensive purse or new golf club. But you will have a much more difficult time predicting the effect of those purchases six months from now. In fact you are likely to be wrong in your prediction. Studies have shown that we expect purchases to bring more happiness than they actually do. For that matter, we have exaggerated expectations for many things to bring us happiness. One problem is that we are attempting to project too far into the future.

“If I get that promotion my life will be happier.” “I’ll be happy if I can get Bob to marry me.” “Children will make us happier.” In each example, the individual is making a prediction that goes far into the future. Each person’s life could be happier as a result of that promotion, marriage or children, but there are many other variables that will contribute to whether their prediction is accurate. Not only can promotions create tension with coworkers, marriage create tension when expectations are unmet, and children can simply be a pain (remember what sleep deprivation feels like?), but other factors such as health concerns, unexpected financial emergencies, or a myriad of life events can impact one’s joy.

Since I was a young child, I have been encouraged to make decisions based on what will lead to greater happiness in the future. I taught my children the same lessons. But making good grades, following the rules, and choosing your friends wisely do not guarantee future happiness. In fact, concern about the future can actually undermine your ability to enjoy today by leaving you anxious in your inability to control the future.

As criminals in jail, teenage mothers, and high school dropouts will tell you, bad decisions can lead to unhappiness, but avoiding bad decisions does not bring happiness. Instead of focusing on the distant future for your happiness, take time each day to find a source of happiness that day can bring.

Perhaps you will find happiness in chatting with a friend, appreciating nature, or performing an simple act of kindness. As you focus on each day’s sources of happiness, you will find that you are better at detaching from the worries of an unpredictable tomorrow.

Why Are Older People Happier?

The New York Times recently published an article on the relationship between aging and well-being. It seems that our happiness declines from age 18 until age 50, when happiness increases. So what if you are way under 40? Do you have to suffer until you get older, or can you gain something from this finding that may contribute to your present-day happiness?

What is different about being fifty? One thing that we know for sure is that health concerns become greater as we age. So health problems evidently do not undermine one’s ability to be content. Typically, children are launched by age 50 (hopefully) and career advancement has leveled off. So the absence of children and career advancement do not undercut our ability to enjoy life.

About 60% of all divorces happen in the first ten years of the marriage (so the Gore marriage is an exception to the rule). Thus, those over 50 probably have settled into a committed relationship or recognize that they will be single for the rest of their life (women who desire marriage but have not prospects, as an example) and choose to spend time nourishing family and friendships.

Those over fifty have also discovered that they have not accurately predicted what will make them happy. Many were raised with the belief that accumulation of things will bring happiness. They strove for higher wages, which took longer work hours and yet they found that the higher wages did not buy happiness. After fifty, they find that a simpler life built around relationships and experiences bring more happiness than accumulating more stuff. Fifty brings the desire to downsize, not accumulate.

Even if you are not fifty, you can profit from the lessons of those who are. Balance your career strivings, your desire for that new boat, or your belief that you will be happier if you get that tummy tuck with the knowledge that lasting happiness is generated in relationships. Commit to your marriage, your friends and to creating memorable experiences with them.